{"id":3580,"date":"2020-04-17T06:50:47","date_gmt":"2020-04-17T06:50:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hopoi.org\/?p=3580"},"modified":"2020-04-17T06:50:47","modified_gmt":"2020-04-17T06:50:47","slug":"lies-poverty-and-repression","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/?p=3580","title":{"rendered":"Lies, poverty and repression"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t\t\t\t\n

<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A look at the blame-gaming and likely consequences of Covid-19 in the Middle East .<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The criminal incompetence of western leaders in failing to deal with the coronavirus pandemic has led to a situation where we do not hear much about the disastrous effects of the virus in the rest of the world – and in particular in the poorer, more vulnerable south. However, the victims of coronavirus are dying in their thousands and the measures taken so far by many \u2018third world\u2019 countries have failed to address the severity of the situation – in terms of both human lives and the economic and political consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More\nthan three decades of global neoliberal capitalism, imposed as one of\nthe conditions for receiving International Monetary Fund and World\nBank loans, have devastated the social infrastructure of these\ncountries. There is no proper healthcare and, to make matters worse,\nsubsidies have been removed. There is huge job insecurity – high\nrates of unemployment existed long before the pandemic, as a result\nof the \u2018structural adjustment\u2019 dictated by said international\norganisations. And, of course, all this has got far worse in the last\nfew months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nThe\nsituation will deteriorate further, as the number of fatalities\nincreases. Most of these states will be left with the stark choice of\nsaving lives or saving the economy. The figures regarding deaths and\nnumbers infected by coronavirus put out by various Middle East\ngovernments are not reliable – no-one at all believes them. Egypt,\nwith its densely populated cities, has reported 135 deaths and 1,794\ninfected patients, yet Saudi Arabia, with a much smaller population,\nadmits to 3,651 confirmed cases and 47 deaths. According to some news\nagencies, including Al Jazeera, some 150 members of the Saudi royal\nfamily have been infected, forcing \u201cKing Salman and crown prince\nMohammed bin Salman (MBS) to retreat into isolation to avoid the\noutbreak\u201d.1<\/a> The\nhealth minister warned last week that the number of Covid-19 cases in\nthe country could reach 200,000 in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nIran<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The\ndeclared figures of Iran\u2019s Islamic Republic are 74,877 confirmed\ncases and 4,683 deaths, as of April 14. Of course, given the record\nof this regime, it is difficult to believe the government\u2019s claims\nthat the rate of infection peaked on March 30 and the number has\nsince fallen. Iranian leaders have followed the UK and US pattern of\nfirst denying there was any cause for concern, then claiming \u2018herd\nimmunity\u2019 would do the trick. President Hassan Rouhani actually\nquoted UK government comments on this, but then a \u2018voluntary\nlockdown\u2019 was announced – ignored by the majority of the\npopulation, who decided that if it was a choice between hunger and\ndisease, they would risk the disease. Finally, the government imposed\na compulsory lockdown over the Iranian new year holiday in late\nMarch. But even this was lifted on April 11 – against the advice of\nthe government\u2019s own medical experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since\nthen Iran has moved into a new phase labelled \u2018smart social\ndistancing\u2019. Of course, there is nothing \u2018smart\u2019 about this new\npolicy, for the country\u2019s economic survival – and therefore the\nregime\u2019s political survival – are deemed more important than human\nlives. Iranians are still posed with the choice: ignore the lockdown\nand risk illness or to stay at home and die of hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nThroughout\nall this ayatollah Ali Khamenei has seemingly been attempting to win\nan award for the most stupid comment made by any leader on the\nsubject – in his case defeating even Donald Trump. In late February,\nIran\u2019s supreme leader claimed that the threat of the virus was part\nof a ploy by the United States and other western powers to use a\ndeadly outbreak to sabotage Iran\u2019s parliamentary elections. In\nearly March he said the virus was not a big deal, then on the\noccasion of the Persian New Year (March 23) he seemed to imply the\nvirus was connected to invisible, supernatural creatures with\nunbelievably destructive powers: \u201cWe have jinn<\/em>2<\/a> and\nhuman enemies that help each other. The intelligence services of many\ncountries work together against us\u201d. Iranians have not failed to\nsee similarities between Khamenei\u2019s comments on the virus and those\nof his arch-enemy, Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of\ncourse, far from \u2018jinn<\/em>\u2019,\nit is his own regime\u2019s neoliberal \u2018structural adjustment\npolicies\u2019, combined with corruption and nepotism, that have created\nthe current disastrous economic conditions, where hunger and\ndeprivation are killing as many people as coronavirus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But,\nas I say, no-one believes any of it, including the official figures.\nAfter all, this is the country where we still do not know how many\npeople died in the protests of November 2019 or the mourning\nprocessions after general Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by a US\ndrone in January. The government shows complete disdain for the lives\nof its own supporters – never mind the majority who make up the rest\nof the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard-line\nIslamists have tried to breach the lockdown with visits to shrines\nand some to make family visits. Although travel between cities was\nofficially banned over the new year holiday starting on March 20,\nphotos posted on social media clearly demonstrate that many Iranians\nwere not adhering to social distancing rules. Travelling on\novercrowded public transport – just like living in an overcrowded\napartment – has taken its toll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nEgypt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The\nstory is similar in many other densely populated Middle Eastern\ncountries. Egypt is, according to the government of Abdel Fattah\nel-Sisi, in the third stage of the outbreak (this is the period when\nthe source of the infection is untraceable and therefore difficult to\ncontrol). The government is advising a lockdown, yet, according to Al\nMonitor<\/em>,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n…\nmany people still wander around in the streets without caring about\nthe virus, preoccupied with more important matters. These people are\nthe most affected by the crisis, but they do not have the luxury of\nstaying at home. They are irregular workers – a segment of society\nthat amounts to 12 million to 14 million people, according to figures\ngiven by the secretary general of the Egyptian Trade Union\nFederation, Mohamed Wahballah.3<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Images\non social media show social distancing is non-existent in Cairo,\nwhile in Giza the market is packed – as in Iran most people are more\nconcerned about their livelihood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And\nin Egypt – also just like Iran – government advice is not believed.\nMany think that the lockdown is part of a plot by the state to\ndeprive them of their meagre income. But the regime is not imposing\npenalties or arresting anyone breaking the lockdown rules – they are\nkeeping such repressive measures for later, when job losses, deaths\nand mass hunger will likely prompt mass protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nnational TV claims that \u201cEgypt is protected by god. No harm can\nbefall us\u201d – a message echoed by religious leaders. A preacher,\nspeaking via social media, told his congregation: \u201cMuslims\nshouldn\u2019t fear coronavirus. They perform ablution five times a day,\nwhich makes it impossible for them to get infected.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nAcross\nthe Middle East, national TV stations are as bad as social media,\nwhen it comes to conspiracy theories. In Egypt one pro-Sisi presenter\nblamed the Muslim Brotherhood for the spread of the virus. However,\nthe most common conspiracy theory is that corona was manufactured in\na laboratory to weaken China as an economic rival to US. No-one seems\nto point out to the proponents of such nonsense that if it was US\nplot how can we explain its disastrous effects on western economies –\nin particular the United States.4<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\nis clear that there is no coordinated international effort to deal\nwith the pandemic. The hegemon power is not concerned about the rest\nof the world. This is quite an unusual situation, in that, following\nprevious major catastrophes (two world wars, the 2008 financial\ncrisis \u2026), there was a level of international coordination led by\nthe United States. To add insult to injury, Trump has imposed a\nfunding freeze on the World Health Organisation. However, the US is\nnot alone in prioritising national self-interest, in the expectation\nthat this period will be followed by unprecedented rivalry between\nthe two major economic powers, the United States itself and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\nis no sign of such coordination even within Europe. If Italy has to\nlook to China for support, how likely is it that \u2018third world\u2019\ncountries will get any help from international organisations? Many\nare avoiding loans from the World Bank, because they know they will\nbe paying high interest on them for at least the next decade. It is\nnot as though these organisations are in the habit of cancelling such\ndebts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On\nthe contrary, the US administration is not only putting \u2018America\nfirst\u2019, but is now involved in high-sea piracy, when it comes to\nstealing protective masks – a sign of a truly barbaric era. There is\nno sign that the US will now relax its economic sanctions against\nIran, which is unlikely to get a favourable answer to its request for\nloans – Trump, Israel and even the Iranian rightwing opposition are\nall dead set against any financial relief for the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nAccording\nto Toby Matthiesen, writing in the magazine Foreign\nAffairs<\/em>,\nthe coronavirus is \u201cexacerbating sectarian tensions in the Middle\nEast\u201d.5<\/a> In\nfact Iran\u2019s Islamic Republic is blamed by most Arab countries for\nactually spreading the Covid-19 infection. It was, of course, the\nfirst country in the region to suffer large numbers of infected\npeople as early as January. Chinese students who were studying in the\nreligious city of Ghom, as well as Chinese workers, were claimed to\nbe the source of infection and then most Arab countries reported\ntheir first cases amongst citizens returning from visits to Iran. It\nis also true that, despite the large number of deaths caused by the\nvirus, Iran was late in taking measures against its spread. However,\nseveral Persian Gulf countries depend on their airlines for\nsubstantial income, with major airports like Doha and Dubai acting as\ninternational hubs. No doubt they have played a significant part in\nthe spread of the virus. Yet, as Matthiesen points out, the Islamic\nrepublic\u2019s Arab neighbours were quick to blame Shia Iran:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nGeneral\nSheikh Rashid bin Abdullah al-Khalifa accused Iran of \u201cbiological\naggression that is criminalised by international law\u201d for covering\nup the outbreak and failing to stamp Bahraini travellers\u2019\npassports. On its official Twitter account, Saudi Arabia\u2019s ministry\nof foreign affairs condemned Iran for \u201ccreating a health\nthreat which endangers mankind\u201d. And a newspaper in the United Arab\nEmirates claimed that all coronavirus cases in the region were\nlinked to Iran – even though the UAE\u2019s first Covid-19 cases were\nChinese tourists from Wuhan (and the cases which were the first to be\nreported in the Middle East were confirmed on January 29 – weeks\nbefore the outbreak in Qom became public).6<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nEconomic<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Inevitably\nthe spread of the coronavirus, coinciding with a price war between\nRussia and Saudi Arabia, has led to a dramatic drop in the price of\ncrude oil, which is now at its lowest level for 17 years. The Persian\nGulf states have shut down large sections of their economies.\nAccording to the Financial\nTimes<\/em>,\nSaudi Arabia has suspended most domestic and international transport\nand closed most shops except for supermarkets and pharmacies. The\nUnited Arab Emirates has urged residents to stay at home and is\nhalting passenger air travel, except for emergency evacuation\nflights. Kuwait has closed down schools until August and in early\nApril the government announced its intention to repatriate about\n17,000 Egyptian teachers, who had been working in the country\u2019s\neducation system. There are around 800,000 Egyptian workers in Kuwait\nout of a total number of immigrant workers of 3.5 million. In Dubai\nthe national airline, Emirates, one of country\u2019s largest employers,\nhas cut most of its flights and is asking its workers to take early\nholidays and unpaid leave. The crisis in these countries has direct\nconsequences for many countries in the region, as income from migrant\nworkers plays an important part in the economies of countries such as\nJordan, Egypt and Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According\nto the International Labour Organisation, there will be<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\na\nrise in global unemployment of between 5.3 million (the \u2018low\u2019\nscenario) and 24.7 million (the \u2018high\u2019 scenario) from a base\nlevel of 188 million in 2019. The middle\u2019 scenario suggests an\nincrease of 13 million (7.4 million in high-income countries). Though\nthese estimates remain highly uncertain, all figures indicate a\nsubstantial rise in global unemployment.7<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\nis estimated that at least 20 million Americans, plus equivalent\nnumbers of Europeans, working in the travel, hospitality and retail\nsectors are likely to lose their jobs. In such circumstances they are\nlikely to make immigration and political asylum much more difficult\nto achieve than before. Fortress Europe\u2019s previous restrictions on\nmigration from \u2018third world\u2019 countries might soon be regarded as\nthe good old days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nAccording\nto the World Bank, sub-Saharan Africa will go into recession in 2020,\ncontracting by between 2.1% and 5.1%, compared to a growth of 2.4%\nlast year. The disruption to trade will cost sub-Saharan Africa\nsomewhere between $37 billion and $79 billion. According to Ken\nRogoff, former chief economist at the IMF, we should \u201cexpect\ncommodity-price collapse and a collapse in global trade unlike\nanything we\u2019ve seen since the 1930s.\u201d8<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\nmost \u2018third world\u2019 countries economic collapse will lead to huge\ntension and lead to increased authoritarianism. Dictatorial regimes\nwill use the pandemic to suppress opposition and maintain power. Far\nfrom releasing prisoners – a justifiable global demand – they will\nincarcerate ever larger numbers of political opponents. In such\ncircumstances, leftwing activists in Europe and North America should\nprioritise solidarity with workers and the poor in the south.\nOtherwise the current global divide will become far worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
  1. \n\n\taljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/04\/coronavirus-widespread-saudi-royal-family-report-200409070130026.html<\/a>.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n\t<\/li>
  2. \n\n\tSupernatural\n\tcreatures in Islamic theology.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n\t<\/li>
  3. \n\n\tal-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2020\/04\/egypt-lockdown-coronavirus-economic-irregular-workers.html.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n\t<\/li>
  4. \n\n\tSee youtube.com\/watch?v=pTSu9hGyWzE&feature<\/a>.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n\t<\/li>
  5. \n\n\tforeignaffairs.com\/articles\/middle-east\/2020-03-23\/coronavirus-exacerbating-sectarian-tensions-middle-east<\/a>.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n\t<\/li>
  6. \n\n\tIbid<\/em>.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n\t<\/li>
  7. \n\n\tilo.org\/wcmsp5\/groups\/public\/—dgreports\/—dcomm\/documents\/briefingnote\/wcms_738753.pdf<\/a>.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n\t<\/li>
  8. \n\n\twsj.com\/articles\/imf-world-bank-face-deluge-of-aid-requests-from-developing-world-11586424609<\/a>.\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a>\n<\/li><\/ol>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A look at the blame-gaming and likely consequences of Covid-19 in the Middle East . The criminal incompetence of western leaders in failing to deal with the coronavirus pandemic has led to a situation where we do not hear much about the disastrous effects of the virus in the rest of the world – and … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “Lies, poverty and repression”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3580\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hopoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}